Haibo Does Data: Week 6, 2024

Hello everyone – welcome to Week 6 of the column! We’re officially a third of the way through the season! As we dive deeper into the data, also check out our weekly Haibo Does Data review on Youtube as well: YouTube Link

2 cards have been increasing in popularity over the first third of the season: Run CMC and Mr. Relevant. I specifically want to do a deep dive on them and see what the hype is all about and how you could potentially optimize these cards. We will also look at some summary metrics from Week 6 and end with Haibo’s Hot Take for Week 7!

Cards of the Week

During the Super Bowl last season between the Chiefs and 49ers, we released a set of special Super Bowl SmashCards. Those cards have carried over into the regular rotation for this season and some have really taken off in usage. This week, we want to look at our #5 and #9 most played cards: Run CMC and Mr. Relevant.

These two cards are very similar in construct. Mr. Relevant ($4,000) – You get 30 points if your QB passes for more than 250 yards and rushes for more than 20 yards. Run CMC ($2,500) – You get 30 points if your RB rushes for more than 80 yards and has more than 40 yards receiving.

Let’s start with Mr. Relevant. It is priced the same as the Afterlife Express trio at $4,000 and is frequently competing for a card slot with Hail Mary – you get 30 points if your QB completes a pass of 50 or more yards. Hail Mary pairs very well with Speed Demon while Mr. Relevant is a nice individual stand-alone QB card. How has it done so far this season?

In general, it hits with at least a few QBs each week. The clear QB to play this on is Lamar Jackson who has hit 3 of the 6 weeks. 20 yards rushing is almost a given with Lamar and it’s purely a – do you think he’s going to throw for 250 yards or not? With such a run heavy offense with him and Henry, that’s not always a given. Other QBs include Mayfield, Smith, Hurts, and Daniels all having hit twice.

With Run CMC – it is priced significantly cheaper at $2,500 and there’s a reason for that. Here’s how it’s done so far.

Run CMC did not hit for ANYONE in 2 of the 6 weeks. In the others, it’s only 2 or 3 RBs out of a much larger set. Early on, it looked like Kamara and Jones were solid picks, but last week – it was really a crapshoot with Tucker and Davis coming out of nowhere to hit on Run CMC with breakout weeks. The most popular player that Run CMC is played on has been Saquon Barkley and he has hit on exactly ZERO of the weeks.

Ultimately, Mr. Relevant is a much better bet not only because it hits more often, but the QBs that it hits on are the ones that you would expect it to hit on. Coming in, I would guess that Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels would be the best players to play that on and the results bear that out. It’s more consistent and more predictable on who it’s going to hit on. Run CMC on the other hand is rarer, but also much more unpredictable. Even when it hits, it may not be who you think or the popular pick (case in point: Saquon Barkley). As a result, it’s much cheaper, but even at $2,500 – you’re taking a bit of a gamble.

Summary Metrics

We had over 2,000 lineups played across our Weekly Tournament and League play in Week 6. These are the top players picked in each position.

A third of the way through the season we definitely see a lot of patterns. Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels are weekly mainstays at the QB position and fit very well for both the Scramble Spikes and the Mr. Relevant SmashCards. Derrick Henry is having an incredible year and Saquon is always a popular pick week in and week out. Gibbs round out RB5 with his backfield mate Montgomery coming in at RB6.

Regarding cards – here are the top 10 played cards last week.

1. SmashCard
2. The Human Vulture
3. Speed Demon
4. Starting RB
5. Unstoppable Freight Train
6. Run CMC
7. Starting WR
8. Ride or Die
9. Roll of the Dice
10. Mr. Relevant
11. Not So Wide Receiver

We continue to see Human Vulture lead the way – as the only $1,000 card it is a mainstay for last second throw-ins for lots of lineups looking to use all of their budget. Two thirds of the Afterlife Express trio show up here with Speed Demon at #2 and Unstoppable Freight Train at #4. The third component, Hail Mary, seems to be getting replaced with Mr. Relevant instead. We did a deep dive on Mr. Relevant and Run CMC in the above section. We’re seeing the lineup-based card Ride of Die coming in at #7 alongside a resurgent Roll of the Dice at #8. A very popular strategy has been playing Roll of the Dice on RB committees and hoping one of them gets less than 30 snaps. We saw the winning team this week play Roll of the Dice on David Montgomery to great success.

Let’s take a look at the top played combos

• Derrick Henry – Unstoppable Freight Train
• Derrick Henry – Starting RB
• Lamar Jackson – Mr. Relevant
• Ja’Marr Chase – Speed Demon
• Saquon Barkley – Unstoppable Freight Train
• Saquon Barkley – Run CMC
• Saquon Barkley – Starting RB
• CeeDee Lamb – Speed Demon
• Ja’Marr Chase – Starting WR
• Bijan Robinson – Run CMC

The top combos are definitely Running Back centric with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley taking up 5 of the top 10 spots. Henry continues his unreal start to the season as Barkley had a disappointing week for the Eagles. Lamar Jackson with Mr. Relevant was a great play at #3 and we see Run CMC in 2 of the top 10 combos with Saquon and Bijan. The top receiver combos disappointed with Speed Demon not hitting on either Chase or Lamb.

Haibo’s Hot Take for Week 7

I’m not sure how much of a hot take this is but almost every single week – Saquon Barkley + Run CMC has been an incredibly popular combo. It was #6 this week and #1 in Week 4 with other top 20 positions in prior weeks. It has hit exactly 0 times! What’s the saying? “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”. Well call me insane then! This is the week that Saquon Barkley + Run CMC FINALLY will hit!

Go set your lineups and good luck in Week 7!