Haibo Does Data: Week 4, 2024

Hello everyone – welcome to Week 4 of the column! What a first 4 weeks it’s been! As we dive deeper into the data, also check out our weekly Haibo Does Data podcast on YouTube as well: Haibo Does Data Podcast

This week we’re joined by Benny Chen, one of the original SmashUp players when the game was in its infancy and played on an excel sheet.

For the column this week – we want to look at some specific strategies around the All or Nothing SmashCards. We will also look at some summary metrics from last week and end with Haibo’s Hot Take for Week 5!

All or Nothing – Cause I want it ALLLLLLL or NOTHING at alll….

Remember O-Town back in the day and Making the Band? That led to one of my favorite parody movies of all time – 2gether and their banger: The Hardest Part of Breaking Up (Is Getting Back Your Stuff)

There is a category of SmashCards that I like to call the “All or Nothing” cards. These are primarily 30 points or 0 depending on if something hits (except for Defense Wins Championships which is 15 or 0). There are 8 of these cards and they vary from long runs (Unstoppable Freight Train) to tough defenses (Necessary Roughness) to specific player stats (Run CMC and Mr. Relevant). There is a specific combo that we’ve seen quite a few users play – which I like to call the “Afterlife Express” – the train between Heaven and Hell. It pairs Hail Mary (30pts if QB throws 50yd+ pass) with Speed Demon (30pts if WR has 40yd+ reception) and Unstoppable Freight Train (30pts if WR has 30yd+ run) with users looking to hit on all 3 of the 30 or 0 for 90 card points. Let’s look at all of the users who played these types of cards last week and how often they hit.

Card Performance

We would expect Defense Wins Championships to be at 50% in a vacuum but generally people do better than that because they can pick specific better matchups. Freight Train had a huge week with almost half of users getting the payoff – this is primarily due to most users pairing it with Saquon Barkley who had a huge 59yd run in the game. Overall, the Afterlife Express sees decent returns last week if you have all 4 lineups and play the combo – you would expect a 10% chance of hitting in at least 1 of the lineups which puts you in great position to be in the money for the week. The caveat is obviously that these cards are extremely high variance so are great for Weekly but maybe not so much for League unless you are way behind and are looking for some high variance plays to get back into it.

Summary Metrics

We had over 2,000 lineups played across our Weekly Tournament and League play in Week 4. These are the top players picked in each position.

Players by Position

We’re definitely seeing a big preference for dual-threat quarterbacks as they pair very well with some of the SmashCards. Jayden Daniels + Scramble Spikes continue to be a popular combo. With a series of great games from Saquon and Jordan Mason, it’s no surprise they were the top 2 picked RBs (and top 2 overall picked players). The TE landscape continues to be a challenge. Bowers only had 1 catch for 19yds, Kmet had 3 for 34, Kincaid with 5 for 47, Ferguson and Goedert both had 7 catches (good if you played Catching Fire or Catching Smoke on top of them) but only for 49yds and 62yds and no touchdowns respectively.

Top Played Cards

One of the interesting cards that makes the top 10 list is Run CMC. There were a TON of users who played Run CMC paired with Saquon. That did not hit unfortunately, with only D’Andre Swift and Aaron Jones hitting for Run CMC. We’re starting to see a pivot away from some of the defense power-ups and into WR power-ups with 4 of the top 4 cards targeting WRs – including Starting WR at #1.

Top Played Combos

As we mentioned before, Saquon was the popular pick across the board and the most used player in Combos. The top combo of the week is Saquon + Run CMC which unfortunately did not hit. SF DST though came up big and rewarded those who played strong DEF cards on SF. Nico Collins had a huge game as well for the Nico Collins/Starting WR folks.

Haibo’s Hot Take for Week 5

With such a crazy TE landscape the first couple of weeks, I think there will be a huge opportunity there this week. My pick/combo of the week is Travis Kelce + Antihero. With Rashee Rice out, I think Kelce returns to being force-fed by Mahomes and with Antihero in play, you get triple his touchdowns. A 6 catch, 80 yard, 2 touchdown game is not out of the question and Antihero would pay off big this week.

Go set your lineups and good luck in Week 5!